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I recently came across the Absa AgriTrends Spring 2025 report which, to be honest, I didn’t even know existed until Food for Mzansi promoted it. It’s a detailed publication packed with insights about the agricultural sector, both globally and here in South Africa.

Now, it’s a very long report, with over 60 pages of data, forecasts, and market trends. And since I’m not really into long reads myself, I thought, why not read it, break it down, and share the key points in a simpler, more digestible way for fellow farmers, students, and agri-enthusiasts?

So, here’s my short and easy-to-read summary of what’s happening in the agri industry this season based on the latest AgriTrends Spring 2025 report by Absa AgriBusiness.

1. Global Market Shifts

The global economy is adjusting to new trade realities. The U.S. has reinstated tariffs, including a 30% tariff on South African goods, putting pressure on citrus, macadamia, and wine exports.

• India’s growing demand for imported fruit and grains offers new opportunities.
• China’s cautious recovery and Europe’s weak consumer demand limit export potential.
• Losing AGOA trade benefits could reduce South Africa’s export competitiveness and hurt agricultural jobs.

Takeaway: Export diversification and stronger trade negotiations are essential to protect South Africa’s market access.

2. Grain and Oilseed Outlook

South Africa’s summer crops are bouncing back thanks to favourable weather:

• Maize production is set to exceed 15 million tons, keeping prices stable.
• Soybeans are heading for a near-record harvest, though global oversupply could pressure prices.
• Wheat prices remain firm due to weather disruptions and import tariffs.

With La Niña likely to return, 2025/26 could be another strong year for grain farmers.

3. Livestock Markets: Resilience in Action

The livestock industry continues to adapt despite biological and economic shocks:

• Beef: Prices climbed due to renewed FMD outbreaks and limited supply.
• Lamb & Mutton: Global shortages keep prices high, and affordability remains a concern.
• Pork: Rising prices and lower feed costs are improving farmer profitability.
• Poultry: Disease outbreaks and import disruptions have driven prices up but are stabilising.

Biosecurity and improved disease management are crucial for long-term stability.

4. High-Value Export Crops

South Africa’s premium fruit and nut industries are under pressure:

• Citrus (Oranges, Lemons, Soft Citrus): Facing tariff shocks but benefitting from efficient port logistics and early EU demand.
• Blueberries: Exports rose despite frost damage, but competition from Peru and Chile is intensifying.
• Macadamias: Global shortages support prices, yet trade barriers could limit growth.

South Africa must strengthen logistics and pursue new trade agreements in Asia and Europe.

5. Vegetable Price Dynamics

Vegetable inflation continues to outpace overall CPI, largely due to:

• Unpredictable weather affecting supply
• Rising costs for carrots and onions
• Stable potato prices supported by strong yields

Vegetables remain central to food security and government income support continues to sustain household demand.

 6. Water and Sustainability (ESG)

South Africa, one of the 30 driest countries globally, is facing increasing pressure to manage water efficiently.

• Climate change is altering rainfall and drought patterns.
• Sustainable water use is vital for both productivity and market credibility.
• ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards are becoming key for agribusiness financing and export access.

Water-smart farming is no longer optional, it’s the future of sustainable agriculture.

 Final Takeaway

The AgriTrends Spring 2025 report paints a picture of resilient but challenged agriculture. South Africa’s farmers and agribusinesses can stay competitive by focusing on:

Market diversification
Biosecurity and disease management
Water and resource efficiency
Sustainable, climate-smart practices

Source and Disclaimer

This article provides a simplified summary of the AgriTrends Spring 2025 report by Absa AgriBusiness (September 2025). This content is shared for educational and informational purposes only.